The Inquiry of the Prediction of the Short Wave Fadeout by the Open-loop Threshold Autoregressive Model
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摘要: 本文基于电离层突然骚扰对强太阳活动的依赖关系,用开环门限自回归分析方法,以每日最大2800MHz射电爆发峰值流量为预报因子,探讨短波衰退事件(SWF)的预报.通过对1980.1—6月和1980.1—2月的短波衰退事件作中、短期预报的检验,表明,用此方法作中期预报的效果优于经验方法的预报;用于短期预报(3天)效果较好.Abstract: The open-loop threshold autoregressive model is used as a method to study prediction of short wave fadeout in this paper, based on a relation that short wave fadeout strongly relies on intense solar activity.The peak of daily flux of the strongest 2800 MHz radio burnt is chosen as predictor. The medium-term, short-term forecasting verifications for Jan.-June, 1980 and Jan.-Feb., 1980 show: for medium-term forecasting (one month ahead) this method is better than the empirical method, but it is quite difficult to forecast the predictor which is required first in the method; the short-term forecasting (three days ahead) using this method has better forecasting effect.
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