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地球同步轨道相对论电子微分通量的动态预报模型

李胜 黄文耿 刘四清 钟秋珍

李胜, 黄文耿, 刘四清, 钟秋珍. 地球同步轨道相对论电子微分通量的动态预报模型[J]. 空间科学学报, 2017, 37(3): 298-311. doi: 10.11728/cjss2017.03.298
引用本文: 李胜, 黄文耿, 刘四清, 钟秋珍. 地球同步轨道相对论电子微分通量的动态预报模型[J]. 空间科学学报, 2017, 37(3): 298-311. doi: 10.11728/cjss2017.03.298
LI Sheng, HUANG Wengeng, LIU Siqing, ZHONG Qiuzhen. Dynamic Prediction Model of Relativistic Electron Differential Fluxes at the Geosynchronous Orbit[J]. Journal of Space Science, 2017, 37(3): 298-311. doi: 10.11728/cjss2017.03.298
Citation: LI Sheng, HUANG Wengeng, LIU Siqing, ZHONG Qiuzhen. Dynamic Prediction Model of Relativistic Electron Differential Fluxes at the Geosynchronous Orbit[J]. Journal of Space Science, 2017, 37(3): 298-311. doi: 10.11728/cjss2017.03.298

地球同步轨道相对论电子微分通量的动态预报模型

doi: 10.11728/cjss2017.03.298
基金项目: 

国家重点研发计划项目资助(2016YFB0501503)

详细信息
    作者简介:

    李胜,phylisheng@163.com

  • 中图分类号: P352

Dynamic Prediction Model of Relativistic Electron Differential Fluxes at the Geosynchronous Orbit

  • 摘要: 地球同步轨道区域充满能量高达MeV的高能电子,其对航天器威胁极大.电子微分通量预报有助于及时有效地预警高能电子事件,降低高能电子对航天器造成的危害.本文以此为背景提出了一种基于经验正交函数(EOF)方法的地球同步轨道相对论电子微分通量预报模型.该模型利用太阳风参数及地磁指数拟合后一天的电子通量EOF系数,结合EOF基函数给出后一天中大于2MeV电子微分通量预报.对2003年1月至2006年6月的样本测试结果表明,该模型可以重构出电子微分通量的真实变化,给出较好的5min微分通量预报,其平均预报效率达到67%左右.

     

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2016-03-07
  • 修回日期:  2017-01-02
  • 刊出日期:  2017-05-15

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