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基于Pareto分布的磁暴感应地电场极值测度模型

吴伟丽 赵普志 蔡其东

吴伟丽, 赵普志, 蔡其东. 基于Pareto分布的磁暴感应地电场极值测度模型[J]. 空间科学学报, 2019, 39(1): 28-35. doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.01.028
引用本文: 吴伟丽, 赵普志, 蔡其东. 基于Pareto分布的磁暴感应地电场极值测度模型[J]. 空间科学学报, 2019, 39(1): 28-35. doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.01.028
WU Weili, ZHAO Puzhi, CAI Qidong. Extreme Value Model of Mid- and Low-latitude Geoelectric Field Due to Magnetic Storms[J]. Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2019, 39(1): 28-35. doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.01.028
Citation: WU Weili, ZHAO Puzhi, CAI Qidong. Extreme Value Model of Mid- and Low-latitude Geoelectric Field Due to Magnetic Storms[J]. Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2019, 39(1): 28-35. doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.01.028

基于Pareto分布的磁暴感应地电场极值测度模型

doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.01.028
基金项目: 

新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(2017D01C417),伊犁师范学院重点项目(2015YSZD03)和伊犁师范学院博士启动基金项目(2016YSBS01)共同资助

详细信息
    作者简介:

    吴伟丽,wwllxm@163.com

  • 中图分类号: P318

Extreme Value Model of Mid- and Low-latitude Geoelectric Field Due to Magnetic Storms

  • 摘要: 磁暴感应地电场为电力系统安全运行带来风险,研究极端磁暴地电场水平能够为量化并防御电力系统磁暴灾害风险提供理论支持.提出了基于极值理论的磁暴感应地电场极值测度模型.首先利用地磁观测数据构造年度最大地电场样本数据,建立地电场广义Pareto分布模型,然后利用剩余寿命图和Q-Q图检验模型,并通过Bayes方法估测模型参数,最后计算模型的分位数,即地电场极值测度.利用中国地磁台观测的52年磁暴数据,结合中国喀什地区大地典型结构,估算出喀什地区五十年一遇的感应地电场可达3.288V·km-1,百年一遇地的感应地电场可达3.332V·km-1.利用相同方法还估测了中国部分地磁台站所在区域的地电场极值.研究结果可为估计极值地磁暴提供新思路,也可为分析电力系统磁暴灾害风险提供数据支撑.

     

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2017-08-08
  • 修回日期:  2017-12-11
  • 刊出日期:  2019-01-15

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