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CME引起的地磁暴穿越时间

孟琛 吕建永 王明 顾春利 季海生

孟琛, 吕建永, 王明, 顾春利, 季海生. CME引起的地磁暴穿越时间[J]. 空间科学学报, 2019, 39(3): 303-309. doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.03.303
引用本文: 孟琛, 吕建永, 王明, 顾春利, 季海生. CME引起的地磁暴穿越时间[J]. 空间科学学报, 2019, 39(3): 303-309. doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.03.303
MENG Chen, LU Jianyong, WANG Ming, GU Chunli, JI Haisheng. Transport Time for the Geomagnetic Storm Caused by CME[J]. Journal of Space Science, 2019, 39(3): 303-309. doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.03.303
Citation: MENG Chen, LU Jianyong, WANG Ming, GU Chunli, JI Haisheng. Transport Time for the Geomagnetic Storm Caused by CME[J]. Journal of Space Science, 2019, 39(3): 303-309. doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.03.303

CME引起的地磁暴穿越时间

doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.03.303
基金项目: 

国家自然科学基金项目(U1631107,41574158,41604141)和江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20160952)共同资助

详细信息
    作者简介:

    孟琛,E-mail:mengchen_33@163.com

  • 中图分类号: P354

Transport Time for the Geomagnetic Storm Caused by CME

  • 摘要: 日冕物质抛射(CME)从发生至引起地磁暴最大值的时间间隔称为穿越时间.本文选取1997-2015年89个CME-Dst事件,分析CME速度、能量、耀斑类型等对穿越时间的影响;采用非线性拟合以及支持向量机(SVM)非线性回归技术,建立基于1997-2009年62个CME-Dst事件的CF模型和SVM模型,并利用其余27个CME-Dst事件对模型预报效果分别进行检验.结果表明,CF模型和SVM模型的预报准确率均达到85.2%,其中CF模型的平均绝对值误差为13.77h,而SVM模型为13.88h.与ECA模型结果(准确率为77.8%,平均绝对值误差为14.55h)进行对比发现,CF模型和SVM模型的准确率更高而误差更小.CF模型和SVM模型能够提前1~5天较好地预报地磁暴爆发时间.

     

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2018-02-27
  • 修回日期:  2018-06-29
  • 刊出日期:  2019-05-15

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