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Prediction of Magnetospheric Disturbances Caused by a Quasi-Stationary Solar Wind

V. G. Eselevich M.V. Eselevich

V. G. Eselevich, M.V. Eselevich. Prediction of Magnetospheric Disturbances Caused by a Quasi-Stationary Solar Wind[J]. 空间科学学报, 2005, 25(5): 374-382. doi: 10.11728/cjss2005.05.374
引用本文: V. G. Eselevich, M.V. Eselevich. Prediction of Magnetospheric Disturbances Caused by a Quasi-Stationary Solar Wind[J]. 空间科学学报, 2005, 25(5): 374-382. doi: 10.11728/cjss2005.05.374
V. G. Eselevich, M.V. Eselevich. Prediction of Magnetospheric Disturbances Caused by a Quasi-Stationary Solar Wind[J]. Journal of Space Science, 2005, 25(5): 374-382. doi: 10.11728/cjss2005.05.374
Citation: V. G. Eselevich, M.V. Eselevich. Prediction of Magnetospheric Disturbances Caused by a Quasi-Stationary Solar Wind[J]. Journal of Space Science, 2005, 25(5): 374-382. doi: 10.11728/cjss2005.05.374

Prediction of Magnetospheric Disturbances Caused by a Quasi-Stationary Solar Wind

doi: 10.11728/cjss2005.05.374

Prediction of Magnetospheric Disturbances Caused by a Quasi-Stationary Solar Wind

  • 摘要: When predicting parameters of quasi-stationary Solar Wind (SW) streams at 1 AU, it is customary to use, as the indicator of solar sources, the Bases of Open Magnetic Tubes (BOMT) on the solar surface obtained via a calculation relying on a new Bd-technique of harmonic expansion of the magnetic field from daily full-disk magnetograms developed by Rudenko[4]. By considering an example of 17 events, it is shown that the correspondence between fast SW streams at the Earth's orbit and the BOMT, calculated with ≤ 24 h time resolution, makes up about 94%, while the correspondence of SW stereams with the CH in the light of the 10830 A line is about 29%. With this technique, the predictability of maxima of the Kp index of magnetospheric disturbance caused by a fast quasi-stationary SW, is over 90%, and the prediction accuracy of the maximun velocity vm of the stream is ±15%.

     

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  • 收稿日期:  1900-01-01
  • 修回日期:  1900-01-01
  • 刊出日期:  2005-09-15

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