Short-term Forecast of f0F2 Based on Ionospheric Storm Empirical Model and Kalman Filter
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摘要: 利用时间累积地磁指数ap(τ), 建立了强地磁扰动条件下电离层f0F2与月中值相对偏差经验模型. 该经验模型只在春秋季节和夏季特强地磁扰动条件ap(τ)>100, 即时间累积地磁指数大于100时达到理想精度. 尝试利用气象预报中常用的Kalman滤波方法对模型的系数进行实时修正, 以提高预报精度, 并对长春站1986—1995年近一个太阳周f0F2数据进行提前一小时预报试验. 冬季预报均方根误差为0.76 MHz, 春秋季节为0.68 MHz, 夏季为0.61 MHz. 在特强地磁扰动条件下, 预测误差在0.87~1.43 MHz 之间. 该预报方法同时与包含暴时修正模型STORM 的国际参考电离层IRI2001 进行了比较, 展示了Kalman 滤波方法实时修正模型系数的能力和良好的应用前景.Abstract: With the time weighted accumulation index ap(τ), an empirical storm model of the relative deviation of f0F2 from its monthly median is established. It shows good accuracy only at strong geomagnetic disturbed condition in summer and equinoxes, but less accuracy result for winter. The wide used method in weather, ydrography, etc., Kalman filter, is used to update the coefficients of the empirical model and expected to make better improvement. The test with the ionosound data of hourly values from 1986 to 1995 at Changchun illustrates that the root-mean-squre error of the forecasted values in one hour advance is 0.76 MHz in winter, 0.68 MHz in summer and 0.61 MHz in equinoxes, respectively. The root-mean-squre error in different seasons are from 0.87 MHz to 1.43 MHz in the case of ap(τ)>100, i.e. the super strong geomagnetic disturbed condition. Simultaneously the method is compared with IRI2001 including the STORM model for several disturbed events, which shows the ability of updating the model coefficients and prospect of application.
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Key words:
- Ionospheric storm /
- Magnetic storm /
- Kalman filter /
- Short-term forecast
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