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空间目标预警阈值确定分析

周威萍 沈鸣 郭效忠 高鹏骐 赵有

周威萍, 沈鸣, 郭效忠, 高鹏骐, 赵有. 空间目标预警阈值确定分析[J]. 空间科学学报, 2017, 37(3): 312-321. doi: 10.11728/cjss2017.03.312
引用本文: 周威萍, 沈鸣, 郭效忠, 高鹏骐, 赵有. 空间目标预警阈值确定分析[J]. 空间科学学报, 2017, 37(3): 312-321. doi: 10.11728/cjss2017.03.312
ZHOU Weiping, SHEN Ming, GUO Xiaozhong, GAO Pengqi, ZHAO You. Analysis on Determining Warning Threshold of Space Objects[J]. Journal of Space Science, 2017, 37(3): 312-321. doi: 10.11728/cjss2017.03.312
Citation: ZHOU Weiping, SHEN Ming, GUO Xiaozhong, GAO Pengqi, ZHAO You. Analysis on Determining Warning Threshold of Space Objects[J]. Journal of Space Science, 2017, 37(3): 312-321. doi: 10.11728/cjss2017.03.312

空间目标预警阈值确定分析

doi: 10.11728/cjss2017.03.312
基金项目: 

国家自然科学基金项目(U1231114)和国家重大科研装备研制项目(ZDYZ2013-2)共同资助

详细信息
    作者简介:

    赵有,youzhao@bao.ac.cn

  • 中图分类号: P128.3

Analysis on Determining Warning Threshold of Space Objects

  • 摘要: 针对目前通常采用计算碰撞概率来进行空间目标碰撞预警的方法,为提高其评判标准的精度以达到提高航天器精准预警的目的,分析了目前空间目标碰撞概率阈值确定过程的总体框架.对阈值确定过程中所涉及的误差协方差矩阵确定方法、碰撞概率计算以及碎片通量计算方法进行了研究.以国际空间站(ISS)为例,通过计算其所在空间的碎片通量,分析其轨道受空间环境的影响情况,并与早期结果进行比较,得出其以往的碰撞概率阈值可能被高估的结论.

     

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2016-03-31
  • 修回日期:  2016-11-02
  • 刊出日期:  2017-05-15

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