基于活动区面积统计的<i>F</i><sub>10.7</sub>指数预报方法

叶茜; 宋乔; 薛炳森

doi:10.11728/cjss2019.05.582

基于活动区面积统计的F_10.7指数预报方法

doi: 10.11728/cjss2019.05.582

叶茜^1,2,
宋乔^1,2,
薛炳森^1,2

1. 国家空间天气监测预警中心北京 100081;
2. 中国气象局空间天气重点开放实验室北京 100081

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目资助（41404136）

详细信息

作者简介:
叶茜,yeqian@cma.gov.cn

中图分类号: P352
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2018-09-07
- 修回日期: 2018-12-08
- 刊出日期: 2019-09-15

F_10.7 Index Forecasting Method Based on Area Statistics of Solar Active Regions

YE Qian^1,2,
SONG Qiao^1,2,
XUE Bingsen^1,2

1. National Center for Space Weather, Beijing 100081;
2. Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Center for Space Weather, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081

摘要

摘要: 太阳10.7cm射电流量（F_10.7）是反映太阳整体活动的重要指标，其主要源头是日面活动区.F_10.7指数与日面活动区具有显著的相关性，且不同面积的活动区与F_10.7并不遵循相同的线性关系.为进一步提高F_10.7预报的准确性，利用日面活动区面积与F_10.7的相关性，依据面积大小分类，提出F_10.7的预报公式并进行验证.采用2008-2018年SWPC （Space Weather Prediction Center）公布的活动区面积数据和CSWFC （Canadan Space Weather Forecast Center）公布的F_10.7实测数据计算预报公式系数，利用高年（2003年）和低年（1997年）的F_10.7预报验证其结果.研究结果表明，预报结果与实测值的相关系数分别为0.9318和0.9295，二者皆优于SWPC同时期的预报结果（相关系数分别为0.9186和0.8771）.本研究首次基于活动区的变化预测了F_10.7，提高了F_10.7预测的准确性.
- F_10.7预报 /
- 活动区面积 /
- 太阳预报
Abstract: Solar 10.7cm radio flux (F_10.7) is an important indicator that reflects overall solar activity, which mainly comes from solar active regions. F_10.7 index linearly correlates with the area size of the active regions. To improve the accuracy of F_10.7 forecast, a new formula for F_10.7 index prediction is proposed and evaluated, using the correlation between areas and F_10.7 based on the classification of area size. The coefficients of the formula were calculated using the active region area data of SWPC and F_10.7 index data of CSWFC from 2008 to 2018. Data of 2003 (active year) and 1997 (quiet year) were used to evaluate the formula. The results indicated the correlation coefficients between the predictions and the observations calculated by this formula were 0.9318 and 0.9295, both higher than the contemporary predictions of SWPC (0.9186 and 0.8771). This study utilized the active region areas on forecasting F_10.7 for the first time and had improved the accuracy of F_10.7 forecasting.
- F_10.7 index forecasting /
- Area of active region /
- Solar forecasting

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