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利用转移熵研究引起磁暴扰动的太阳风参数重要性排序

于佳斌 佟继周 方少峰 胡晓彦

于佳斌, 佟继周, 方少峰, 胡晓彦. 利用转移熵研究引起磁暴扰动的太阳风参数重要性排序[J]. 空间科学学报, 2022, 42(3): 346-356. doi: 10.11728/cjss2022.03.210406045
引用本文: 于佳斌, 佟继周, 方少峰, 胡晓彦. 利用转移熵研究引起磁暴扰动的太阳风参数重要性排序[J]. 空间科学学报, 2022, 42(3): 346-356. doi: 10.11728/cjss2022.03.210406045
YU Jiabin, TONG Jizhou, FANG Shaofeng, HU Xiaoyan. Transfer Entropy Approach to Discovering the Ranking of Solar Wind Drivers to Geomagnetic Storm (in Chinese). Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2022, 42(3): 346-356. DOI: 10.11728/cjss2022.03.210406045
Citation: YU Jiabin, TONG Jizhou, FANG Shaofeng, HU Xiaoyan. Transfer Entropy Approach to Discovering the Ranking of Solar Wind Drivers to Geomagnetic Storm (in Chinese). Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2022, 42(3): 346-356. DOI: 10.11728/cjss2022.03.210406045

利用转移熵研究引起磁暴扰动的太阳风参数重要性排序

doi: 10.11728/cjss2022.03.210406045
基金项目: 中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类)空间科学(二期)地面支撑项目科学卫星数据处理与管理技术课题资助(XDA15040200)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    于佳斌:E-mail:18332043150@163.com

  • 中图分类号: P353

Transfer Entropy Approach to Discovering the Ranking of Solar Wind Drivers to Geomagnetic Storm

  • 摘要: 磁暴是重要空间天气灾害性事件,能够影响卫星的安全在轨运行和地面电网系统等。目前,对于太阳风–磁层相互作用的研究多集中在分析相关系数的线性关系,而基于信息论的转移熵可以提供强大的无模型有向统计量,可用来分析传统相关性分析和模型假设检测不到的非线性关系。本文利用转移熵的方法,研究了磁暴期间的太阳风驱动参数。利用第23和24太阳活动周的小时精度数据进行长时间尺度分析,发现太阳风向地磁的信息传递呈双峰分布,表现出与太阳活动水平的一致性。利用2010-2018年93个地磁暴期间的分钟精度数据进行短时间尺度分析,结果表明:行星际电场(E)和行星际磁场南向分量($ {B}_{z} $)对地磁指数Sym-H在时间延迟为60 min时信息传递较强,而太阳风速度 $ {v}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $、温度 $ {T}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $、数密度$ {D}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $、磁场B和动压$ {P}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $对Sym-H指数的信息传递较弱。上述研究结果能够为太阳风–磁层相互作用的建模提供参数选择及确定预测范围的依据。

     

  • 图  1  行星际磁场南向分量Bz与地磁Sym-H指数的转移熵和相关系数

    Figure  1.  Transfer entropy and correlation coefficient between $ {{\rm{IMF}}\;B}_{z} $ and Sym-H

    图  2  各太阳风参数对地磁Sym-H指数的转移熵

    Figure  2.  Transfer entropy of multiple solar wind parameters to Sym-H

    图  3  行星际磁层南向分量$ {B}_{z} $和地磁$ \mathrm{S}\mathrm{y}\mathrm{m}{\text{-}}H $指数的转移熵

    Figure  3.  Transfer entropy of $ {B}_{z} $ and Sym-H

    图  4  行星际磁场($ B $)、太阳风速度($ {v}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $)、太阳风等离子体数密度($ {D}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $)、太阳风温度($ {T}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $)、太阳风动压($ {P}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $)、行星际电场($ E $)对地磁Sym-H指数的转移熵

    Figure  4.  Transfer entropy of interplanetary magnetic field ($ B $), solar wind speed ($ {v}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $), solar wind plasma number density ($ {D}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $), solar wind temperature ($ {T}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $) solar wind dynamic pressure ($ {P}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $), the interplanetary electric field ($ E $) and Sym-H

    表  1  ${{\boldsymbol{T}}}_{\bf{s}\bf{w}\to \bf{S}\bf{y}\bf{m}{\text{-}}{\boldsymbol{H}}}$同太阳活动指数的相关性

    Table  1.   Correlation between ${{\boldsymbol{T}}}_{\bf{s}\bf{w}\to \bf{S}\bf{y}\bf{m}{\text{-}}{\boldsymbol{H}}}$ and solar radiation

    指标 相关系数转移熵
    源序列目标序列 $ {N}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{s}} $F10.7$ {N}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{s}} $F10.7
    $ T(B\to \mathrm{S}\mathrm{y}\mathrm{m}{\text{-}}H) $ 0.72 0.70 0.22 0.20
    $ T({B}_{z}\to \mathrm{S}\mathrm{y}\mathrm{m}{\text{-}}H) $ 0.74 0.70 0.20 0.16
    $ T({T}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}}\to \mathrm{S}\mathrm{y}\mathrm{m}{\text{-}}H) $ 0.83 0.82 0.36 0.33
    $ T({D}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}}\to \mathrm{S}\mathrm{y}\mathrm{m}{\text{-}}H) $ 0.80 0.79 0.27 0.25
    $ T({v}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}}\to \mathrm{S}\mathrm{y}\mathrm{m}{\text{-}}H) $ 0.74 0.72 0.26 0.23
    $ T({P}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}}\to \mathrm{S}\mathrm{y}\mathrm{m}{\text{-}}H) $ 0.61 0.58 0.19 0.18
    $ T(E\to \mathrm{S}\mathrm{y}\mathrm{m}{\text{-}}H) $ 0.64 0.60 0.15 0.12
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  2010-2018年磁暴事件

    Table  2.   Geomagnetic storm events from 2010 to 2018

    Start time (UT)Peak time (UT)$ {\mathit{D}\mathit{s}\mathit{t}}_{\mathbf{m}\mathbf{i}\mathbf{n}}/\bf{n}\bf{T} $Start time (UT)Peak time (UT)$ {\mathit{D}\mathit{s}\mathit{t}}_{\mathbf{m}\mathbf{i}\mathbf{n}}/\bf{n}\bf{T} $
    2010-04-05 12:002010-04-06 07:40–902015-07-04 13:002015-07-05 04:50–86
    2010-08-03 21:002010-08-04 01:10–812015-08-15 09:002015-08-16 07:30–93
    2011-02-04 19:302011-02-04 21:22–672015-08-23 06:002015-08-23 08:30–59
    2011-03-01 18:002011-03-01 20:40–692015-08-27 03:002015-08-27 20:30–100
    2011-03-11 21:002011-03-11 23:36–822015-08-27 21:002015-08-29 01:05–54
    2011-04-06 18:002011-04-06 19:03–652015-09-09 03:002015-09-09 08:00–110
    2011-05-28 06:002011-05-28 11:11–942015-09-11 06:002015-09-11 14:20–94
    2011-05-29 04:302011-05-29 06:53–662015-09-20 06:002015-09-20 11:05–84
    2011-06-04 21:002011-06-05 05:19–602015-10-07 18:002015-10-07 22:25–124
    2011-08-05 20:572011-08-06 03:22–1262015-11-07 03:002015-11-07 06:05–106
    2011-09-09 15:002011-09-10 04:26–772015-12-20 03:002015-12-20 22:50–169
    2011-09-17 13:302011-09-17 18:29–632015-12-31 13:302016-01-01 01:05–117
    2011-09-26 16:442011-09-26 21:19–1162016-02-17 21:002016-02-18 00:20–59
    2011-10-24 21:002011-10-25 01:15–1602016-03-06 18:002016-03-06 21:20–109
    2012-01-24 18:002012-01-25 10:45–822016-03-11 12:002016-03-11 20:15–30
    2012-03-09 03:002012-03-09 08:13–1502016-04-02 21:002016-04-02 22:50–65
    2012-03-12 10:302012-03-12 16:55–672016-05-02 03:002016-05-02 03:15–55
    2012-03-15 15:522012-03-15 19:53–792016-05-08 00:002016-05-08 08:15–103
    2012-04-24 00:002012-04-24 03:26–1252016-06-06 03:002016-06-06 08:05–55
    2012-06-16 21:002012-06-17 12:53–692016-06-14 18:002016-06-15 01:00–33
    2012-07-15 06:002012-07-15 10:04–1232016-09-01 21:002016-09-02 01:50–72
    2012-09-03 12:002012-09-04 07:51–792016-09-27 15:002016-09-28 03:05–48
    2012-09-05 00:002012-09-05 07:43–832016-09-28 18:002016-09-29 09:30–64
    2012-10-01 03:002012-10-01 03:52–1382016-10-13 15:002016-10-13 23:45–114
    2012-10-08 07:302012-10-09 02:10–1162016-10-25 12:002016-10-25 22:55–80
    2012-11-14 01:302012-11-14 07:27–1182016-11-25 03:002016-11-25 06:30–52
    2013-03-17 06:002013-03-17 20:28–1322016-12-21 15:002016-12-21 15:40–52
    2013-06-01 01:002013-06-01 07:48–1372017-03-01 23:002017-03-02 02:09–60
    2013-06-07 03:002013-06-07 04:39–862017-03-27 09:002017-03-27 14:45–86
    2013-06-29 03:002013-06-29 06:34–1112017-04-20 03:002017-04-20 04:25–47
    2013-10-02 03:002013-10-02 06:19–902017-04-22 03:002017-04-22 23:40–52
    2013-12-08 00:002013-12-08 08:30–722017-05-27 21:002017-05-28 07:10–141
    2014-02-20 03:002014-02-20 05:55–1012017-07-16 12:002017-07-16 13:15–66
    2014-02-27 18:002014-02-27 23:25–1002017-08-22 00:002017-08-23 12:30–51
    2014-06-08 03:002014-06-08 06:50–712017-09-07 21:002017-09-08 01:05–144
    2014-08-19 21:002014-08-21 07:50–392017-09-08 12:002017-09-08 17:05–111
    2014-09-12 15:002014-09-12 23:05–952017-09-14 15:002017-09-16 04:30–44
    2015-01-07 06:002015-01-07 11:00–1342017-09-27 18:002017-09-28 05:55–74
    2015-03-17 06:002015-03-17 22:45–2332017-10-13 12:002017-10-14 05:35–67
    2015-03-22 06:002015-03-22 08:05–642017-11-07 18:002017-11-08 04:05–89
    2015-04-10 03:002015-04-11 09:25–882018-03-18 21:002018-03-18 21:42–53
    2015-04-16 21:002015-04-16 23:40–882018-04-20 06:002018-04-20 09:35–86
    2015-05-13 03:002015-05-13 06:45–952018-05-06 00:002018-05-06 02:31–66
    2015-05-19 00:002015-05-19 02:55–642018-08-26 00:002018-08-26 07:11–206
    2015-06-08 06:002015-06-08 07:45–1042018-09-11 06:002018-09-11 10:07–64
    2015-06-22 18:002015-06-23 04:25–2072018-11-05 03:002018-11-05 06:02–66
    2015-06-25 06:002015-06-25 19:45–90
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  太阳风参数对地磁Sym-H指数重要性系数排序

    Table  3.   Importance ranking of solar wind parameters to geomagnetic index Sym-H

    序号太阳风参数$ \varGamma $/nats$ {\delta }_{{S}/{N}} $ at $ {\tau }_{\mathrm{m}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{x}} $$ {\alpha }_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{g}} $ at $ {\tau }_{\mathrm{m}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{x}} $$ \left|r\right| $$ {D}_{M} $
    1行星际电场($ E $)0.2003.9237.430.4730.101
    2行星际磁场南向分量(Bz0.1964.1536.830.4620.107
    3太阳风速度($ {v}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $)0.1593.1529.920.3220.200
    4太阳风温度($ {T}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $)0.1573.0829.170.2240.285
    5太阳风密度($ {D}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $)0.1482.9328.000.2440.262
    6行星际磁场($ B $)0.1463.1027.450.2900.213
    7太阳风动压($ {P}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $)0.1352.6825.580.2090.277
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2021-04-06
  • 录用日期:  2021-05-19
  • 修回日期:  2022-01-29
  • 网络出版日期:  2022-05-23

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