利用转移熵研究引起磁暴扰动的太阳风参数重要性排序

于佳斌; 佟继周; 方少峰; 胡晓彦

doi:10.11728/cjss2022.03.210406045

利用转移熵研究引起磁暴扰动的太阳风参数重要性排序

doi: 10.11728/cjss2022.03.210406045

1.
中国科学院国家空间科学中心　北京　100190
2.
中国科学院大学　北京　100049

基金项目: 中国科学院战略性先导科技专项（A类）空间科学（二期）地面支撑项目科学卫星数据处理与管理技术课题资助（XDA15040200）

详细信息

作者简介:
于佳斌：E-mail：18332043150@163.com

中图分类号: P353
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-04-06
- 录用日期: 2021-05-19
- 修回日期: 2022-01-29
- 网络出版日期: 2022-05-23

Transfer Entropy Approach to Discovering the Ranking of Solar Wind Drivers to Geomagnetic Storm

1.
National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190
2.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049

摘要

摘要: 磁暴是重要空间天气灾害性事件，能够影响卫星的安全在轨运行和地面电网系统等。目前，对于太阳风–磁层相互作用的研究多集中在分析相关系数的线性关系，而基于信息论的转移熵可以提供强大的无模型有向统计量，可用来分析传统相关性分析和模型假设检测不到的非线性关系。本文利用转移熵的方法，研究了磁暴期间的太阳风驱动参数。利用第23和24太阳活动周的小时精度数据进行长时间尺度分析，发现太阳风向地磁的信息传递呈双峰分布，表现出与太阳活动水平的一致性。利用2010－2018年93个地磁暴期间的分钟精度数据进行短时间尺度分析，结果表明：行星际电场（E）和行星际磁场南向分量（$ {B}_{z} $）对地磁指数Sym-H在时间延迟为60 min时信息传递较强，而太阳风速度 $ {v}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $、温度 $ {T}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $、数密度$ {D}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $、磁场B和动压$ {P}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $对Sym-H指数的信息传递较弱。上述研究结果能够为太阳风–磁层相互作用的建模提供参数选择及确定预测范围的依据。
- 太阳风 /
- 地磁暴 /
- 转移熵
Abstract: Geomagnetic storm is an important disaster event in space weather, which can affect satellite orbit and ground power system. At present, in the solar wind-magnetosphere system, most studies focus on the linear relationships analyzed by the correlation coefficient. However, transfer entropy can provide powerful model-free directed statistics, which can be used to analyze non-linear relationships that cannot be detected by traditional correlation analysis and model hypothesis. The hourly resolution data of solar activity cycle 23 and 24 were used to analyze the large time scale. The information transmission of solar wind and geomagnetic has a bimodal distribution, which is consistent with the solar activity level. Using the minute resolution data of 93 geomagnetic storms from 2010 to 2018 for small time scale analysis, the results show that E, ${{\rm{IMF}}B}_{z}$ have strong information transmission to the geomagnetic Sym-H parameter when the time delay is 60 minutes, while $ {v}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $, $ {T}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $, $ {D}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $, B, $ {P}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $ are lower. It provides the basis for parameter selection and prediction range determination for solar wind-geomagnetic model construction.
- Solar wind /
- Geomagnetic storm /
- Transfer entropy
注释:

1) http://omniweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/

2) https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/

HTML全文

图 1 行星际磁场南向分量B_z与地磁Sym-H指数的转移熵和相关系数

Figure 1. Transfer entropy and correlation coefficient between $ {{\rm{IMF}}\;B}_{z} $ and Sym-H

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 各太阳风参数对地磁Sym-H指数的转移熵

Figure 2. Transfer entropy of multiple solar wind parameters to Sym-H

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 行星际磁层南向分量$ {B}_{z} $和地磁$ \mathrm{S}\mathrm{y}\mathrm{m}{\text{-}}H $指数的转移熵

Figure 3. Transfer entropy of $ {B}_{z} $ and Sym-H

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 行星际磁场（$ B $）、太阳风速度（$ {v}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $）、太阳风等离子体数密度（$ {D}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $）、太阳风温度（$ {T}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $）、太阳风动压（$ {P}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $）、行星际电场（$ E $）对地磁Sym-H指数的转移熵

Figure 4. Transfer entropy of interplanetary magnetic field ($ B $), solar wind speed ($ {v}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $), solar wind plasma number density ($ {D}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $), solar wind temperature ($ {T}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $) solar wind dynamic pressure ($ {P}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $), the interplanetary electric field ($ E $) and Sym-H

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 ${{\boldsymbol{T}}}_{\bf{s}\bf{w}\to \bf{S}\bf{y}\bf{m}{\text{-}}{\boldsymbol{H}}}$同太阳活动指数的相关性

Table 1. Correlation between ${{\boldsymbol{T}}}_{\bf{s}\bf{w}\to \bf{S}\bf{y}\bf{m}{\text{-}}{\boldsymbol{H}}}$ and solar radiation

指标	相关系数		转移熵
源序列目标序列	$ {N}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{s}} $	F_10.7	$ {N}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{s}} $	F_10.7
$ T(B\to \mathrm{S}\mathrm{y}\mathrm{m}{\text{-}}H) $	0.72	0.70	0.22	0.20
$ T({B}_{z}\to \mathrm{S}\mathrm{y}\mathrm{m}{\text{-}}H) $	0.74	0.70	0.20	0.16
$ T({T}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}}\to \mathrm{S}\mathrm{y}\mathrm{m}{\text{-}}H) $	0.83	0.82	0.36	0.33
$ T({D}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}}\to \mathrm{S}\mathrm{y}\mathrm{m}{\text{-}}H) $	0.80	0.79	0.27	0.25
$ T({v}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}}\to \mathrm{S}\mathrm{y}\mathrm{m}{\text{-}}H) $	0.74	0.72	0.26	0.23
$ T({P}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}}\to \mathrm{S}\mathrm{y}\mathrm{m}{\text{-}}H) $	0.61	0.58	0.19	0.18
$ T(E\to \mathrm{S}\mathrm{y}\mathrm{m}{\text{-}}H) $	0.64	0.60	0.15	0.12

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 2010－2018年磁暴事件

Table 2. Geomagnetic storm events from 2010 to 2018

Start time (UT)	Peak time (UT)	$ {\mathit{D}\mathit{s}\mathit{t}}_{\mathbf{m}\mathbf{i}\mathbf{n}}/\bf{n}\bf{T} $	Start time (UT)	Peak time (UT)	$ {\mathit{D}\mathit{s}\mathit{t}}_{\mathbf{m}\mathbf{i}\mathbf{n}}/\bf{n}\bf{T} $
2010-04-05 12:00	2010-04-06 07:40	–90	2015-07-04 13:00	2015-07-05 04:50	–86
2010-08-03 21:00	2010-08-04 01:10	–81	2015-08-15 09:00	2015-08-16 07:30	–93
2011-02-04 19:30	2011-02-04 21:22	–67	2015-08-23 06:00	2015-08-23 08:30	–59
2011-03-01 18:00	2011-03-01 20:40	–69	2015-08-27 03:00	2015-08-27 20:30	–100
2011-03-11 21:00	2011-03-11 23:36	–82	2015-08-27 21:00	2015-08-29 01:05	–54
2011-04-06 18:00	2011-04-06 19:03	–65	2015-09-09 03:00	2015-09-09 08:00	–110
2011-05-28 06:00	2011-05-28 11:11	–94	2015-09-11 06:00	2015-09-11 14:20	–94
2011-05-29 04:30	2011-05-29 06:53	–66	2015-09-20 06:00	2015-09-20 11:05	–84
2011-06-04 21:00	2011-06-05 05:19	–60	2015-10-07 18:00	2015-10-07 22:25	–124
2011-08-05 20:57	2011-08-06 03:22	–126	2015-11-07 03:00	2015-11-07 06:05	–106
2011-09-09 15:00	2011-09-10 04:26	–77	2015-12-20 03:00	2015-12-20 22:50	–169
2011-09-17 13:30	2011-09-17 18:29	–63	2015-12-31 13:30	2016-01-01 01:05	–117
2011-09-26 16:44	2011-09-26 21:19	–116	2016-02-17 21:00	2016-02-18 00:20	–59
2011-10-24 21:00	2011-10-25 01:15	–160	2016-03-06 18:00	2016-03-06 21:20	–109
2012-01-24 18:00	2012-01-25 10:45	–82	2016-03-11 12:00	2016-03-11 20:15	–30
2012-03-09 03:00	2012-03-09 08:13	–150	2016-04-02 21:00	2016-04-02 22:50	–65
2012-03-12 10:30	2012-03-12 16:55	–67	2016-05-02 03:00	2016-05-02 03:15	–55
2012-03-15 15:52	2012-03-15 19:53	–79	2016-05-08 00:00	2016-05-08 08:15	–103
2012-04-24 00:00	2012-04-24 03:26	–125	2016-06-06 03:00	2016-06-06 08:05	–55
2012-06-16 21:00	2012-06-17 12:53	–69	2016-06-14 18:00	2016-06-15 01:00	–33
2012-07-15 06:00	2012-07-15 10:04	–123	2016-09-01 21:00	2016-09-02 01:50	–72
2012-09-03 12:00	2012-09-04 07:51	–79	2016-09-27 15:00	2016-09-28 03:05	–48
2012-09-05 00:00	2012-09-05 07:43	–83	2016-09-28 18:00	2016-09-29 09:30	–64
2012-10-01 03:00	2012-10-01 03:52	–138	2016-10-13 15:00	2016-10-13 23:45	–114
2012-10-08 07:30	2012-10-09 02:10	–116	2016-10-25 12:00	2016-10-25 22:55	–80
2012-11-14 01:30	2012-11-14 07:27	–118	2016-11-25 03:00	2016-11-25 06:30	–52
2013-03-17 06:00	2013-03-17 20:28	–132	2016-12-21 15:00	2016-12-21 15:40	–52
2013-06-01 01:00	2013-06-01 07:48	–137	2017-03-01 23:00	2017-03-02 02:09	–60
2013-06-07 03:00	2013-06-07 04:39	–86	2017-03-27 09:00	2017-03-27 14:45	–86
2013-06-29 03:00	2013-06-29 06:34	–111	2017-04-20 03:00	2017-04-20 04:25	–47
2013-10-02 03:00	2013-10-02 06:19	–90	2017-04-22 03:00	2017-04-22 23:40	–52
2013-12-08 00:00	2013-12-08 08:30	–72	2017-05-27 21:00	2017-05-28 07:10	–141
2014-02-20 03:00	2014-02-20 05:55	–101	2017-07-16 12:00	2017-07-16 13:15	–66
2014-02-27 18:00	2014-02-27 23:25	–100	2017-08-22 00:00	2017-08-23 12:30	–51
2014-06-08 03:00	2014-06-08 06:50	–71	2017-09-07 21:00	2017-09-08 01:05	–144
2014-08-19 21:00	2014-08-21 07:50	–39	2017-09-08 12:00	2017-09-08 17:05	–111
2014-09-12 15:00	2014-09-12 23:05	–95	2017-09-14 15:00	2017-09-16 04:30	–44
2015-01-07 06:00	2015-01-07 11:00	–134	2017-09-27 18:00	2017-09-28 05:55	–74
2015-03-17 06:00	2015-03-17 22:45	–233	2017-10-13 12:00	2017-10-14 05:35	–67
2015-03-22 06:00	2015-03-22 08:05	–64	2017-11-07 18:00	2017-11-08 04:05	–89
2015-04-10 03:00	2015-04-11 09:25	–88	2018-03-18 21:00	2018-03-18 21:42	–53
2015-04-16 21:00	2015-04-16 23:40	–88	2018-04-20 06:00	2018-04-20 09:35	–86
2015-05-13 03:00	2015-05-13 06:45	–95	2018-05-06 00:00	2018-05-06 02:31	–66
2015-05-19 00:00	2015-05-19 02:55	–64	2018-08-26 00:00	2018-08-26 07:11	–206
2015-06-08 06:00	2015-06-08 07:45	–104	2018-09-11 06:00	2018-09-11 10:07	–64
2015-06-22 18:00	2015-06-23 04:25	–207	2018-11-05 03:00	2018-11-05 06:02	–66
2015-06-25 06:00	2015-06-25 19:45	–90

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 太阳风参数对地磁Sym-H指数重要性系数排序

Table 3. Importance ranking of solar wind parameters to geomagnetic index Sym-H

序号	太阳风参数	$ \varGamma $/nats	$ {\delta }_{{S}/{N}} $ at $ {\tau }_{\mathrm{m}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{x}} $	$ {\alpha }_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{g}} $ at $ {\tau }_{\mathrm{m}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{x}} $	$ \left\|r\right\| $	$ {D}_{M} $
1	行星际电场（$ E $）	0.200	3.92	37.43	0.473	0.101
2	行星际磁场南向分量（B_z）	0.196	4.15	36.83	0.462	0.107
3	太阳风速度（$ {v}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $）	0.159	3.15	29.92	0.322	0.200
4	太阳风温度（$ {T}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $）	0.157	3.08	29.17	0.224	0.285
5	太阳风密度（$ {D}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $）	0.148	2.93	28.00	0.244	0.262
6	行星际磁场（$ B $）	0.146	3.10	27.45	0.290	0.213
7	太阳风动压（$ {P}_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{w}} $）	0.135	2.68	25.58	0.209	0.277

下载: 导出CSV

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