基于太阳10.7 cm射电流量的全日面耀斑预报方法

雷蕾; 崔延美; 钟秋珍; 师立勤

doi:10.11728/cjss2023.02.220219018

基于太阳10.7 cm射电流量的全日面耀斑预报方法

doi: 10.11728/cjss2023.02.220219018

中国科学院国家空间科学中心　北京　100190
中国科学院大学　北京　100049

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目（420722424），中国科学院重点研究项目（ZDRE-KT-2021-3）和中国科学院国家空间科学中心攀登计划共同资助

详细信息

作者简介:
崔延美：E-mail：ymcui@nssc.ac.cn

中图分类号: P353
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-02-17
- 录用日期: 2022-05-11
- 修回日期: 2022-04-13
- 网络出版日期: 2023-04-10

Solar Full-disk Flare Forecasting Model Based on 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux

National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049

摘要

摘要: 太阳耀斑是一种重要的太阳爆发活动现象，表现为近乎全波段的电磁辐射增强。统计表明，太阳活动水平越高，太阳爆发越频繁，耀斑爆发的概率越大。利用1975－2007年10.7 cm流量与耀斑爆发的统计关系，建立了一种可行的全日面爆发耀斑概率的预报方法，能够实现C，M，X三种级别的耀斑在全日面爆发的概率预报。通过2008－2016年的观测数据，对模型进行了预报性能的评估，得到模型对C，M，X级耀斑发生概率的预报误差均较小，Brier评分误差分别为0.113，0.087，0.012；模型的预报性能均比平均模型有提高，对C，M，X级耀斑发生概率预报的Brier技巧评分分别为0.250，0.106，0.012。在2008－2016年未来1天耀斑预报的模型实测中，模型的预报效果与中国科学院空间环境预报中心的预报效果相当，这说明该模型在实际的空间环境预报中切实可行。
- 10.7 cm流量 /
- 全日面耀斑预报 /
- 概率预报
Abstract: Solar flare is an important solar active phenomenon, which is manifested as electromagnetic radiant enhancement in almost all wave bands. The statistics indicate that the solar flare is positively associated with the solar active levels. In this paper, a method for predicting the probability of solar flare is established based on the statistical relationship between 10.7 cm flux and solar flare during 1975 to 2007. The forecasting model can be used to predict the probability of C, M and X class flares. During 2008 to 2016, the predicted errors of the model for C, M and X class flares are 0.113, 0.087 and 0.012, respectively, and the predicted skill scores are 0.250, 0.106 and 0.012, respectively. It means that our method has less predicted errors and more skill scores than the average model for predicting C, M and X class flares. During the period from 2008 to 2016, the predicted results of the model are similar to that of Space Environment Prediction Center in National Space Science Center. It indicates that the model is feasible in the actual space environment prediction.
- 10.7 cm solar radio flux /
- Solar full-disk flare forecasting /
- Probabilistic forecast
注释:

1) *https://ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/space-weather/solar-data/solar-features/solar-radio/noontime-flux/penticton/penticton_observed/listings/

2) **ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/warehouse

3) *http://www.sepc.ac.cn/archive2.php

HTML全文

图 1 F_10.7的逐日变化和C，M，X级耀斑的每日爆发次数

Figure 1. Daily F_10.7 and daily numbers of C, M, and X-class flares

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 F_10.7与太阳耀斑爆发频次的统计关系（数据散点为统计结果，曲线为Boltzmann函数对数据散点的拟合）

Figure 2. Statistical relationship between F_10.7 and production frequencies of C, M, and X-class flares (Scatter points are the statistical results, and the curve is the fitting of Boltzmann function to these points)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 2014年10月全日面耀斑预报模型的预报结果与实测结果的比较（红色散点为预报值，蓝色散点为耀斑实际发生情况）

Figure 3. Comparison of the output of the solar full-disk flare prediction model with the observation results in October 2014 (The red scatter points are the predicted values, and the blue scatter points are the actual occurrence of the flares)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 模型预报可靠性评估结果

Figure 4. Evaluation results of the model reliability

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 F_10.7分别与C，M，X级耀斑频率进行Boltzmann函数拟合的拟合系数

Table 1. Boltzmann function coefficients for fitting F_10.7 to the production frequencies of C, M, and X-class flare, respectively

C M X

A₁ –0.62756 –1.17626 –6.77724×10^–5
A₂ 0.98561 4.71786 0.35925
Z₀ 77.30752 435.65705 254.95498
W 19.23882 262.55073 42.62485

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 模型基于预报中心F_10.7进行的耀斑预报与预报中心耀斑预报的评估对比

Table 2. Comparison of results between the model flare forecasts based on SPEC-predicted F_10.7 values as inputs and the flare forecasts provided by the SEPC

耀斑级别 B_s B_ss

模型预报 M 0.0895 0.1590
X 0.0119 0.0358
预报中心的预报 M 0.0860 0.1914
X 0.0120 0.0290

下载: 导出CSV

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