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基于太阳10.7 cm射电流量的全日面耀斑预报方法

雷蕾 崔延美 钟秋珍 师立勤

雷蕾, 崔延美, 钟秋珍, 师立勤. 基于太阳10.7 cm射电流量的全日面耀斑预报方法[J]. 空间科学学报, 2023, 43(2): 212-218. doi: 10.11728/cjss2023.02.220219018
引用本文: 雷蕾, 崔延美, 钟秋珍, 师立勤. 基于太阳10.7 cm射电流量的全日面耀斑预报方法[J]. 空间科学学报, 2023, 43(2): 212-218. doi: 10.11728/cjss2023.02.220219018
LEI Lei, CUI Yanmei, ZHONG Qiuzhen, SHI Liqin. Solar Full-disk Flare Forecasting Model Based on 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux (in Chinese). Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2023, 43(2): 212-218 doi: 10.11728/cjss2023.02.220219018
Citation: LEI Lei, CUI Yanmei, ZHONG Qiuzhen, SHI Liqin. Solar Full-disk Flare Forecasting Model Based on 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux (in Chinese). Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2023, 43(2): 212-218 doi: 10.11728/cjss2023.02.220219018

基于太阳10.7 cm射电流量的全日面耀斑预报方法

doi: 10.11728/cjss2023.02.220219018
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(420722424),中国科学院重点研究项目(ZDRE-KT-2021-3)和中国科学院国家空间科学中心攀登计划共同资助
详细信息
    作者简介:

    崔延美:E-mail:ymcui@nssc.ac.cn

  • 中图分类号: P353

Solar Full-disk Flare Forecasting Model Based on 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux

  • 摘要: 太阳耀斑是一种重要的太阳爆发活动现象,表现为近乎全波段的电磁辐射增强。统计表明,太阳活动水平越高,太阳爆发越频繁,耀斑爆发的概率越大。利用1975-2007年10.7 cm流量与耀斑爆发的统计关系,建立了一种可行的全日面爆发耀斑概率的预报方法,能够实现C,M,X三种级别的耀斑在全日面爆发的概率预报。通过2008-2016年的观测数据,对模型进行了预报性能的评估,得到模型对C,M,X级耀斑发生概率的预报误差均较小,Brier评分误差分别为0.113,0.087,0.012;模型的预报性能均比平均模型有提高,对C,M,X级耀斑发生概率预报的Brier技巧评分分别为0.250,0.106,0.012。在2008-2016年未来1天耀斑预报的模型实测中,模型的预报效果与中国科学院空间环境预报中心的预报效果相当,这说明该模型在实际的空间环境预报中切实可行。

     

  • 图  1  F10.7的逐日变化和C,M,X级耀斑的每日爆发次数

    Figure  1.  Daily F10.7 and daily numbers of C, M, and X-class flares

    图  2  F10.7与太阳耀斑爆发频次的统计关系(数据散点为统计结果,曲线为Boltzmann函数对数据散点的拟合)

    Figure  2.  Statistical relationship between F10.7 and production frequencies of C, M, and X-class flares (Scatter points are the statistical results, and the curve is the fitting of Boltzmann function to these points)

    图  3  2014年10月全日面耀斑预报模型的预报结果与实测结果的比较 (红色散点为预报值,蓝色散点为耀斑实际发生情况)

    Figure  3.  Comparison of the output of the solar full-disk flare prediction model with the observation results in October 2014 (The red scatter points are the predicted values, and the blue scatter points are the actual occurrence of the flares)

    图  4  模型预报可靠性评估结果

    Figure  4.  Evaluation results of the model reliability

    表  1  F10.7分别与C,M,X级耀斑频率进行Boltzmann函数拟合的拟合系数

    Table  1.   Boltzmann function coefficients for fitting F10.7 to the production frequencies of C, M, and X-class flare, respectively

    CMX
    A1–0.62756–1.17626–6.77724×10–5
    A20.985614.717860.35925
    Z077.30752435.65705254.95498
    W19.23882262.5507342.62485
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  模型基于预报中心F10.7进行的耀斑预报与预报中心耀斑预报的评估对比

    Table  2.   Comparison of results between the model flare forecasts based on SPEC-predicted F10.7 values as inputs and the flare forecasts provided by the SEPC

    耀斑级别BsBss
    模型预报M0.08950.1590
    X0.01190.0358
    预报中心的预报M0.08600.1914
    X0.01200.0290
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2022-02-17
  • 录用日期:  2022-05-11
  • 修回日期:  2022-04-13
  • 网络出版日期:  2023-04-10

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