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摘要: 赤道等离子体泡(Equatorial Plasma Bubbles, EPBs)是日落后低纬电离层中形成的低电子密度空腔结构,其演化过程会导致无线电信号闪烁与衰减。对赤道等离子体泡的演化进行精准预测,在空间天气研究及卫星通信领域意义重大。本文提出基于SimVP(Simpler yet Better Video Prediction)框架的EPB演化预测模型,通过历史气辉图像数据学习EPB时空演化特征,实现对未来演化的精准预测。通过系统实验分析了关键参数对模型性能的影响,结果表明,时间分辨率设为3分钟,采用6帧输入图和6帧输出图的架构时模型性能最优(结构相似度为0.989,峰值信噪比为34.704)。EPB空间形态复杂度对预测精度影响显著,而光污染干扰相对有限。该模型不仅为EPB演化提供了数据驱动的高效预测工具,还可为受污染气辉观测数据的修复提供技术支撑。Abstract: Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs) are cavity structures with low electron density formed in the low-latitude ionosphere after sunset. Their evolution process can lead to the scintillation and attenuation of radio signals. Precise prediction of the evolution of Equatorial Plasma Bubbles is of great significance in the fields of space weather research and satellite communication. This paper proposes an EPB evolution prediction model based on the SimVP (Simpler yet Better Video Prediction) framework. By learning the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of EPBs from historical airglow image data, it achieves accurate prediction of future evolution. Through systematic experimental analysis of the influence of key parameters on the model performance, the results show that when the time resolution is set to 3 minutes and the architecture with 6 input frames and 6 output frames is adopted, the model performs optimally (SSIM = 0.989, PNSR = 34.704). The complexity of the spatial morphology of EPBs has a significant impact on the prediction accuracy, while the interference of light pollution is relatively limited. This model not only provides a data-driven and efficient prediction tool for the evolution of EPBs, but also offers technical support for the restoration of contaminated airglow observation data.
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Key words:
- Equatorial Plasma Bubble /
- video prediction /
- SimVP /
- spatiotemporal dependency
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