High-precision orbit synthesis of two-line elements based on Long Short-Term Memory network
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摘要: 为提升TLE(两行根数)在轨道预报中的精度,解决传统多项式拟合和物理建模方法在难以处理轨道非线性演化趋势时的问题,提出一种基于长短期记忆网络(LSTM)的高精度TLE轨道参数拟合方法,利用历史TLE数据对轨道要素进行高精度时间序列拟合与轨道合成。采用LSTM神经网络对TLE轨道参数进行时间序列建模,并结合多项式拟合形成混合建模策略。实验以87个铱星33碎片的TLE数据构建拟合模型并生成合成TLE用SGP4传播器前向传播三天轨道位置误差。实验结果表明,合成TLE相较原始TLE在传播三天内的传播误差显著降低,第三天误差改善率达97.70%;大部分目标的传播误差控制在2km以内。合成TLE误差呈集中分布,具备稳定性;误差频率统计显示三天内0–2km误差区间覆盖比例超过81%,显著优于原始TLE。基于LSTM的TLE轨道合成方法在捕捉轨道参数非线性演化方面表现优越,结合角度线性化和平滑滤波策略,显著提高了轨道参数拟合的精度与稳定性。研究成果在提升空间态势感知能力、轨道碰撞预警和任务调度方面具有一定的应用价值。Abstract: To enhance the accuracy of TLE (Two-Line Element) in orbit prediction and address the issues of traditional polynomial fitting and physical modeling methods in dealing with the nonlinear evolution trend of orbits, a high-precision TLE orbit parameter fitting method based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks is proposed. This method utilizes historical TLE data to conduct high-precision time series fitting and orbit synthesis of orbital elements. By applying LSTM neural networks to model the time series of TLE orbit parameters and combining it with polynomial fitting, a hybrid modeling strategy is formed. The experiment constructs a fitting model using the TLE data of 87 Iridium 33 debris and generates synthetic TLEs, using the SGP4 propagator to forward propagate the orbit position errors for three days. The experimental results show that the propagation error of the synthetic TLE is significantly reduced compared to the original TLE within three days, with an improvement rate of 97.70% on the third day; the propagation error of most targets is controlled within 2 km. The error of synthetic TLEs is concentrated and stable; the error frequency statistics show that the coverage ratio of the 0-2 km error range within three days exceeds 81%, which is significantly better than the original TLE. The TLE orbit synthesis method based on LSTM demonstrates superior performance in capturing the nonlinear evolution of orbit parameters. Combined with angle linearization and smoothing filtering strategies, it significantly improves the accuracy and stability of orbit parameter fitting. The research results have certain application value in enhancing space situational awareness, orbit collision warning, and mission scheduling.
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