The Prediction of Ionospheric Irregularities Based on Residual Compensation WHO-RF Model
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摘要: 针对电离层不规则体预测困难和单一随机森林(RF)模型在预测中存在精度不高且参数调整困难等问题,在结合野马优化算法(Wild Horse Optimizer,WHO)的基础上进行残差补偿(Residual compensation,RC),构建RC-WHO-RF电离层不规则体预测模型。利用2020年3月1日至2024年6月30日期间香港HKWS站的观测数据,计算电离层总电子含量变化率的标准差(ROTI)以及选择一系列与不规则体相关的背景电离层参数作为输入特征进行实验分析。结果表明,ROTI、余弦相位日变化因子和地磁活动指数对电离层不规则体的预测至关重要;RC-WHO-RF模型预测的均方根误差均小于0.1 TECU/min,对突发性磁暴事件也具有优异的响应能力和预测精度;RC-WHO-RF模型在提前30分钟的短临预报中平均相对精度达90.67%,比WHO-RF提升8.16%,比单一RF模型提升11.2%,组合模型的预测效果要明显优于单一RF模型和WHO-RF模型。Abstract: In response to the difficulties in predicting ionospheric irregularities and the low accuracy and tendency to fall into local optima of a single random forest (RF) model in prediction, a RC-WO-RF ionospheric irregularities regression prediction model was constructed by combining the Wild Horse Optimizer (WHO) algorithm with Residual Compensation (RC). Using observation data from the Hong Kong HKWS station from March 1, 2020 to June 30, 2024, the standard deviation of the total electron content change rate (ROTI) was calculated, and a series of background ionospheric parameters related to ionospheric irregularities were selected as input features. The results indicate that, ROTI, Cosine phase daily variation factor and geomagnetic activity are crucial for ionospheric irregularities; The root mean square error of the RC-WO-RF model is less than 0.1 TECU/min, and it has excellent response capability and prediction accuracy for sudden geomagnetic storm events; The average relative accuracy of the RC-WO-RF model in short-term forecasting 30 minutes in advance is 90.67%, which is 8.16% higher than the WHO-RF model and 11.2% higher than the single RF model. The prediction performance of the combined model is significantly better than that of the single RF model and the WHO-RF model.
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