SYM-H Index Prediction for Full Geomagnetic Storm Processes Based on a Composite model
-
摘要: 地磁暴期间地磁扰动的强度由SYM-H表征,精确预测SYM-H对空间天气预警至关重要。复合模型是一种综合物理原理和神经网络技术的SYM-H短时预报模型。模型基于环电流总能量平衡方程建立SYM-H时间推进方程,并结合神经网络优化模型关键参数,兼顾可解释性与对复杂情况的处理能力。本文通过迭代策略将复合模型短时预报扩展至整个磁暴过程的SYM-H预测,利用太阳风和SYM-H观测数据对模型进行训练,研究了不同迭代时间步长下磁暴过程SYM-H的预测表现,发现迭代步长60分钟时表现最优,平均均方根误差(RMSE)为16.3nT,决定系数R²为0.767。预测误差主要集中于磁暴急始(SSC)、主相及恢复相初期,强磁暴绝对误差显著高于弱磁暴,相对误差与弱磁暴相当。研究结果验证了复合模型在全磁暴预测中的可行性,为空间天气预报提供了选择方案。Abstract: The intensity of geomagnetic disturbances during geomagnetic storms is characterized by SYM-H, and accurate prediction of SYM-H is crucial for space weather warnings. The composite model is the latest short-term SYM-H prediction model integrating physical principles and neural network technology. It is extended to predict SYM-H throughout the entire magnetic storm process via an iterative strategy. The model establishes a SYM-H time evolution equation based on the total energy balance equation of the ring current, and optimizes key model parameters using neural networks, balancing interpretability and the ability to handle complex scenarios. Trained with solar wind and SYM-H observation data, the study compares the prediction performance of SYM-H during magnetic storms under different iterative time steps. The optimal performance is achieved at an iterative step of 60 minutes, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 16.3 nT and a determination coefficient R² of 0.767. Prediction errors are mainly concentrated in the sudden storm commencement (SSC), main phase, and early recovery phase, and errors for intense magnetic storms are significantly higher than those for weak ones. This study verifies the feasibility of the composite model in full magnetic storm prediction, providing an alternative for space weather forecasting.
-
Key words:
- geomagnetic storm /
- SYM-H index /
- composite model /
- space weather /
- ring current
-
-
计量
- 文章访问数: 15
- HTML全文浏览量: 0
- PDF下载量: 1
-
被引次数:
0(来源:Crossref)
0(来源:其他)
下载: