Research on an Automatic Detection Algorithm for X-ray Solar Flares Based on Dual-Mode Triggering and Nested Event Segmentation Mechanism
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摘要: 太阳耀斑的实时自动检测是空间天气业务化检测与预警的一项重要内容。目前基于传统规则的耀斑检测算法在太阳活动极大期面临着复杂背景噪声干扰以及连续嵌套事件识别困难等问题。为此,本研究设计了一种改良的物理阈值检测算法。该算法基于GOES系列卫星X射线通量数据,构建“极速上升模式”与“缓慢上升模式”双通道触发模型,以适应上升相极短的脉冲型耀斑与上升相平缓持续的缓变型耀斑之间的形态差异;同时引入嵌套事件分割机制,实现对前一个耀斑衰减阶段二次爆发耀斑的精确识别。本研究利用2024年5月X射线通量数据构建耀斑自动识别算法,并用2025年数据进行性能验证,结果显示,算法对X级耀斑的识别准确率达到了100%,M级耀斑的F1分数达到0.969,精确率为97.3%;在耀斑时间判定上,全样本开始时间、结束时间及持续时间的平均绝对误差(MAE)分别约为2.3分钟、2.2分钟和4.3分钟。本算法基于纯时间序列形态学分析实现,物理可解释性强且计算资源消耗极低,可满足星载处理器或边缘计算设备的低功耗部署需求,从而为耀斑业务预报提供有效的监测工具。Abstract: Real-time automatic detection of solar flares is crucial for space weather operational forecasting. However, traditional rule-based flare detection algorithms face challenges including complex background noise interference and difficulties in identifying nested events during the solar maximum period. To address these issues,this study designs an improved physical threshold detection algorithm. Using X-ray flux data from the GOES series satellites, a dual-channel trigger model of "fast-rising" and "slow-rising" is developed to adapt to the morphological differences between short-duration pulse-type flares and long-duration gradual flares during the rising phase.Additionally, a nested event segmentation mechanism is introduced to accurately identify secondary flares during the decay phase of the previous flare. In this study, an automatic flare recognition algorithm was developed using X-ray flux data from May 2024 and its performance was verified with data from 2025. The results show that the algorithm achieved a complete detection for X-class flares, with an F1 score of 0.969 and a precision of 97.3% for M-class flares. In terms of flare timing determination, the mean absolute errors(MAE) for start time,end time,and duration were approximately 2.3 min, 2.2 min and 4.3min,respectively.This algorithm is based on pure time series morphological analysis, has strong physical interpretability, and requires extremely low computational resources. It can meet the low-power deployment requirements of on-board processors or edge computing devices, thereby providing an effective monitoring tool for flare operational forecasting.
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Key words:
- Solar flares /
- automatic detection /
- nested event segmentation /
- space weather monitoring
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