南极中山站长期(1993－2023年)再分析臭氧总量地基观测验证及趋势
doi: 10.11728/cjss2026.01.2025-0009 cstr: 32142.14.cjss.2025-0009
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郑广惠 1997年4月出生, 在读理学硕士, 现就读于西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 主要从事大气探测研究 -
巨天珍 女, 1965年8月出生, 现任西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院环境科学与工程系教授, 硕士生导师, 主要从事环境科学和生态学方面的教学和研究工作. E-mail: Jutianzhen@nwnu.edu.cn
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Validation of the Long-term (1993－2023) Reanalysis of Total Ozone Column and Their Trends at Zhongshan Station, Antarctica
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摘要: 基于南极中山站1993－2023年Brewer光谱仪地基观测大气臭氧总量(Ω), 对再分析数据MERRA2和ERA5的臭氧总量进行验证、评估和趋势分析. 研究发现, 再分析数据与地基测值在反映南极臭氧洞及臭氧总量季节变化方面是一致的. 日均 MERRA2和ERA5的臭氧总量差异浓度值(ΔΩ )分别为–2.0±9.6 DU和3.2±7.8 DU, 相对差异分布均呈随机特征. 1993－2004年和2005－2023年两个时段的臭氧洞(地基Ω ≤220 DU)期间, MERRA2的相对差异百分比 ΔR 均值分别为6.9% ± 4.6%(1σ)和–0.4% ± 2.3%(1σ), 而ERA5则分别为4.6% ± 2.0%(1σ)和6.4% ± 3.1% (1σ); 随着太阳天顶角θ 的上升, MERRA2 与ERA5的 ΔR 在1993－2004年分别呈现总体幅度为3%和2%的上升, 而在2005－2023年则分别呈–2%下降和2%上升; 2005－2023年的再分析臭氧总量数据质量优于1993－2004年. 经Brewer光谱仪测值订正后的再分析数据均表现出ΔΩ 的恢复态势, 其中ERA5的恢复速率每10年为 1.3 DU . 再分析数据在被地基验证和订正之前应慎用于评估南极大气臭氧总量长期趋势变化. 地基臭氧总量观测时数虽然受太阳天顶角或天气影响而远低于再分析数据, 但对再分析数据的验证是评估臭氧总量长期变化的关键依据.Abstract: Based on the Brewer ozone spectrophotometer long-term (1993－2023) observations at Zhongshan Station, Antarctica, the atmospheric Total Ozone Column (TOC) of the MERRA2 and ERA5 reanalysis are compared, evaluated, and their trends are analyzed. The results show that the reanalysis is generally in good agreement with the ground-based data in the context of occurrence of the ozone hole and the TOC seasonality. The TOC bias (ΔΩ) on the daily mean scale is –2.0±9.6 DU and 3.2±7.8 DU for MERRA2 and ERA, respectively. Both the probability distributions of the reanalysis ΔΩ exhibit normal random processes and their large variations occurred at the end of March and during the ozone hole period. The reanalysis data were divided into two periods, 1993－2004 and 2005－2023, based on the changes of satellites to which the reanalysis data were assimilated, but the ΔTOC values (including ERA5) during the ozone hole increases with decreasing of the TOC in the both periods, and the ΔR values for MERRA2/ERA5 were respectively 6.9%±4.6%(1σ)/ 4.6%±2.0%(1σ)and –0.4%～2.3%(1σ)/ 6.4%±3.1%(1σ). The ΔR of MERRA2 and ERA5 show an increasing trend with the Solar Zenith Angle (SZA) during 1993－2004, with each magnitude of 3% and 2%, while the opposite trend is observed from 2005 to 2023, with magnitudes of –2% and 2% for MERRA2 and ERA5, respectively. The quality of reanalysis TOC data from 2005 to 2023 is superior to that from 1993 to 2004. Both the reanalysis TOC data validated by Brewer show their consistent recovery trends of TOC, and the linearly fitted recovery rate of ERA5 is 1.3 DU per decade. The study suggests that raw reanalysis TOC data should be used with much caution before evaluating the long-term trends of the ozone layer, and the data from the ground-based observations, although the number of the data is much less than that of reanalysis outputs due to seasonal SZA or weather conditions, is critical for the reanalysis TOC validation and conclusions of the TOC trend.
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图 1 (a) 1993－2023年中山站臭氧总量日均值变化, (b) MERRA2与Brewer光谱仪的臭氧总量散点图及线性拟合结果, (c) ERA5与Brewer光谱仪的臭氧总量散点图及线性拟合结果
Figure 1. (a) Variations of daily mean TOC at Zhongshan station from 1993 to 2023. (b) Scatter plot and linear fitting results of MERRA2 and Brewer’s TOC. (c) Scatter plot linear fitting results of ERA5 and Brewer’s TOC
图 2 1993－2023年MERRA2和ERA5的ΔΩ和ΔR日均 时间序列
Figure 2. Time series of daily mean of ΔΩ and ΔR for MERRA2 and ERA5 in 1993－2023
图 3 MERRA2(a)和ERA5 (b) ΔR 的概率分布
Figure 3. ΔR probability distribution of MERRA2 (a) and ERA5 (b)
图 4 MERRA2 (a) 和ERA5(b)日均ΔR随季节分布变化
Figure 4. Daily average ΔR of MERRA2 (a) and ERA5 (b) changes with seasonal distribution
图 5 1993－2004年(a)和2005－2023年( b)MERRA2 和ERA5 的ΔR随Brewer光谱仪测臭氧总量值的变化
Figure 5. Variation of ΔR of MERRA2 and ERA5 with Brewer measured TOC during 1993－2004 (a) and 2005－2023 (b)
图 6 MERRA2 和ERA5的ΔR随地基太阳天顶角值的变化
Figure 6. Variation of ΔΩ of MERRA2 and ERA5 as a function of SZA
图 7 MERRA2 (a)和ERA5 (b)的ΔR月均值时间序列
Figure 7. Monthly means time series of ΔR MERRA2 (a) and ERA5 (b)
图 8 1993－2023 年南极中山站Brewer光谱仪, MERRA2和ERA5年均臭氧总量的变化及线性拟合趋势比较. (a) 原始臭氧总量数据呈现的臭氧洞趋势, (b) Brewer原始数据及订正再分析臭氧总量数据呈现臭氧洞趋势; (c) 同(a)但为非臭氧洞趋势 , (d)同(c) 但为非臭氧洞趋势
Figure 8. Comparison of yearly means TOC variations and their linearly fitted trends of Brewer, MERRA2 and ERA5 at Zhongshan Station Antarctica in 1993－2023. (a) Ozone hole trends with raw TOC data, (b) ozone hole trends with validated reanalyzed TOC data, (c) same as (a) but for non-ozone hole trends, (d) same as (b) but for non-ozone hole trends
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