The Inquiry of the Prediction of the Short Wave Fadeout by the Open-loop Threshold Autoregressive Model

The open-loop threshold autoregressive model is used as a method to study prediction of short wave fadeout in this paper, based on a relation that short wave fadeout strongly relies on intense solar activity.The peak of daily flux of the strongest 2800 MHz radio burnt is chosen as predictor. The medium-term, short-term forecasting verifications for Jan.-June, 1980 and Jan.-Feb., 1980 show: for medium-term forecasting (one month ahead) this method is better than the empirical method, but it is quite difficult to forecast the predictor which is required first in the method; the short-term forecasting (three days ahead) using this method has better forecasting effect.