Predicting the Shock Arrival Time Using 1D-MHD CE/SE Solar Wind Model

A 1D-MHD shock propagation model (1D-MHD (CE/SE) model) is established to predict the arrival time of interplanetary shocks at 1AU, using the space-time Conservation Element and Solution Element (CE/SE) method. Applying this model to 137 solar events during the period of February 1997 to August 2002, it is found that our model could be practically equivalent to the STOA, ISPM, HAFv.2 and SPM models in forecasting the shock arrival time. The absolute error in the transit time from 1D-MHD (CE/SE) model is not larger than those of the other four models for the same sample events. Also, the prediction test shows that the relative error of our model is ≤10% for 25.6% of all events, ≤30% for 69.3%, and ≤50% for 87.6%, which is comparable to the relative errors of the other models. These results might demonstrate a potential capability of our model in terms of real-time forecasting.