Prediction of Relativistic Electron Flux at Geosynchronous Orbit Based on Magnetic Field

There is a good correlation between the relativistic electron flux and the P-component (perpendicular to the orbit plane and points northward) of magnetic field at geosynchronous orbit, and more importantly, the later happened 1~2 day earlier than the former. So the relativistic electron flux can be forecasted by the magnetic field measurement onboard. Firstly, the physical mechanisms possibly governing the correlation have been analyzed in this paper. Secondly, by analyzing the data of GOES11 (an geosynchronous orbit satellite which longitude is 135ºW), the best advanced time and linear correlation will be found out. Finally, a quantitative prediction model is developed. The outputs are hourly-averaged flux on four typical time periods 24 hours later. These four typical time periods are: midnight (23:31 LT---00:30 LT), morning (05:31 LT---06:30 LT), noon (11:31 LT---12:30 LT), evening (17:31 LT---18:30 LT) of local time. The relativistic flux of model has two energy spectrums which are >0.6 MeV and >2 MeV. The model Prediction Efficiency (PE) is about 0.7. This prediction model is of great application to synchronous satellites.