Research on Sloar Proton Event Warning With Observation Data of ACE Satellite

Solar Proton Event (SPE) can bring significant radiation hazards to astronauts and spacecrafts in space. An accuracy SPE warning model is meaningful since some effective actions on basis of the warning results could be done to reduce the abundant radiation from which astronauts and spacecrafts would suffer. Therefore, a number of researchers try to build reliable SPE warning models, and some of the results are quite satisfactory. Five-minute- average real-time integral energetic solar protons flux data (mainly above 10MeV) from ACE satellite and GOES in Solar Proton Event periods were analyzed. Besides, correlation coefficients between two kinds of data were calculated. The optimal correlation coefficients were satisfactory, and they showed that the flux data from GOES have tens of minutes up to several hours lag time compared with that from ACE. This paper tries to use the ACE satellite data described above to build a new SPE onset warning method. Furthermore, five-minute- average real time integral energetic proton flux on GOES from Aug. 7, 2001 to Feb. 20, 2012 were utilized to check the new method's validity. This new method has low false probabilities (14.7%) and fairly good detection probabilities (76.3%) in SPE onset warning. Moreover, it has a prior time from tens of minutes up to couple hours. The results were compared with SPE warning results of SWPC, which shows this new method is superior to the latter in some extent.