Volume 37 Issue 3
May  2017
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Article Navigation >  Chinese Journal of Space Science  > 2017  >  37(3): 298-311
LI Sheng, HUANG Wengeng, LIU Siqing, ZHONG Qiuzhen. Dynamic Prediction Model of Relativistic Electron Differential Fluxes at the Geosynchronous Orbit[J]. Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2017, 37(3): 298-311. doi: 10.11728/cjss2017.03.298
Citation: LI Sheng, HUANG Wengeng, LIU Siqing, ZHONG Qiuzhen. Dynamic Prediction Model of Relativistic Electron Differential Fluxes at the Geosynchronous Orbit[J]. Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2017, 37(3): 298-311. doi: 10.11728/cjss2017.03.298
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Dynamic Prediction Model of Relativistic Electron Differential Fluxes at the Geosynchronous Orbit

doi: 10.11728/cjss2017.03.298 cstr: 32142.14.cjss2017.03.298

  • 1. National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190;

  • 2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049

  • Received Date: 2016-03-07
  • Rev Recd Date: 2017-01-02
  • Publish Date: 2017-05-15
    Abstract
  • The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is applied to develop an empirical model to predict relativistic electron fluxes at the geostationary orbit. This model uses the solar wind parameters and geomagnetic index to forecast the EOF-coefficient, and then gives the 5min prediction results of relativistic electron differential fluxes during the coming day according to the EOF base function. By comparing with the original relativistic electron data obtained by GOES 10 from January 2003 to June 2006, it is found that the model is capable of approximately reconstructing the real changes of relativistic electron fluxes and of effectively forecasting their 5min variations. The mean prediction efficiency of this model is 67%.

     

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