Orbit Determination of Asteroid 2016HO3 and Analysis of Detection of Yarkovsky Effect Force

To address the requirement for high-precision ephemerides in autonomous asteroid exploration missions, data processing and analysis were conducted on asteroid 2016HO3. Initially, a high-precision dynamical model for the asteroid was established. After a 40-year integration, the resulting ephemerides exhibited a deviation of less than 400 m compared to those from the JPL Horizons system. Subsequently, orbit determination calculations were performed using observational data released by the Minor Planet Center (MPC). The impact of two weighting strategies on the orbit determination results was analyzed, revealing that, despite highly consistent residuals, the orbital deviation approached 100 km. Furthermore, an attempt was made to detect the Yarkovsky effect through orbital solutions, which verified the effectiveness of the detection method. The orbital evolution analysis demonstrated that, due to the fixed-month observations of the asteroid by ground-based facilities, the orbital deviation was most stable during that specific month, whereas the orbital evolution diverged significantly in other months. This study provides references and theoretical support for subsequent data processing in autonomous asteroid exploration missions.