Volume 44 Issue 3
Jun.  2024
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Article Navigation >  Chinese Journal of Space Science  > 2024  >  44(3): 425-436 Open Access
CHEN Anqin, LI Mu, GUO Jianguang, LIU Dandan, TANG Wei, ZHAO Haijuan. Verification of Short-term Forecast for F10.7 Index and Ap Index (in Chinese). Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2024, 44(3): 425-436 doi: 10.11728/cjss2024.03.2023-0121
Citation: CHEN Anqin, LI Mu, GUO Jianguang, LIU Dandan, TANG Wei, ZHAO Haijuan. Verification of Short-term Forecast for F10.7 Index and Ap Index (in Chinese). Chinese Journal of Space Science, 2024, 44(3): 425-436 doi: 10.11728/cjss2024.03.2023-0121
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Verification of Short-term Forecast for F10.7 Index and Ap Index

doi: 10.11728/cjss2024.03.2023-0121 cstr: 32142.14.cjss2024.03.2023-0121

  • Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Satellite Meteorological Center (National Center for Space Weather), China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081

  • Innovation Center for FengYun Meteorological Satellite (FYSIC), Beijing 100081

  • Received Date: 2023-10-27
  • Rev Recd Date: 2023-12-12
    • Available Online: 2024-01-31
    Abstract
  • The National Center for Space Weather (NCSW) has been providing space weather forecasts for the next 24 h, 48 h and 72 h since 1 July 2004. In this paper, the average error, the average absolute error, the skill score, the median error and the interquartile range of error are used to verify the F10.7 index and Ap index forecasted by NCSW from 2005 to 2022. It was found that the F10.7 index forecasted by NCSW for the next 24 h, 48 h, and 72 h are usually smaller than the observed F10.7 index; the Ap index for the next 24 h is usually higher than the observed Ap index, while Ap index forecasted for the next 48 h and 72 h are usually lower than the observed Ap index. The higher the level of solar activity, the greater the forecast error of the F10.7 index is. However, the maximum forecast error of the Ap index occurs in the declining period of solar activity. In addition, we compared the forecasts of NCSW with the simple statistical models such as the persistence model, 14 days recurrence model, 14 days corrected recurrence model, 27 days recurrence model, and 27 days corrected recurrence model, and found that the forecast performance of NCSW is usually better than that of five simple statistical models. For the F10.7 index, the forecast performance of NCSW is slightly better than that of the persistence model, and significantly better than that of the four recurrence models. However, when the solar activity level is high, the persistence model's performance of the F10.7 index for the next 72 h is better than that of NCSW. For the Ap index, in most cases, the performance of NCSW is significantly better than that of statistical models. However, when geomagnetic disturbances are severe, the Ap index forecasted by the 27 days recurrence model is more accurate than that forecasted by NCSW.

     

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